Jones vs Evans: Prediction

On April 21, 2012 in Atlanta, Georgia, UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, Jon "Bones" Jones defends his title against former champion "Suga" Rashad Evans. The most compelling fact about this match up is that Jones and Evans were once training partners. Jones and Evans both trained under Greg Jackson at Jackson's Submission Fighting and MMA. While both were light heavyweight competitors, they both asserted that they would not fight because they were on the same team. At the time, Jones was a rising star and Evans was already an established former champion and winner of the heavyweight division on The Ultimate Fighter 2. How did this fight come to be when the two were so adamant about leaving competition between the two in the training gym, outside of the octagon? 

A Little Background

After Lyoto Machida's controversial title defense over Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in their first fight; Evans was matched against Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. The winner of the fight was to face the winner of Machida vs Rua 2. Evans gained a decision victory over Jackson, and Rua knocked Machida out to win the title. Evans' match against Rua was postponed due to a knee injury suffered in his fight with Machida. In ironic fashion, when the fight was on again, Evans blew out his own knee in training and couldn't compete. So UFC president Dana White, in good old fight making fashion, not wanting to lose the night, all the prep work, and money spent promoting, inserts the hot prospect Jon "Bones" Jones. In that fight, Jones gave Rua the worst beating of his life, forcing a stoppage in the third round. And while Jones was being interviewed by Joe Rogan, in walks Rashad Evans, informing Jones that he's coming for the title. From then, Evans broke away from his trainer Greg Jackson and hasn't spoken to him in over a year, while Jones is still trained by Jackson. A bit of bad blood has been brewing and the fight has become all the more intriguing.

Jones' Keys To Victory
Jones stands tall at 6'4, towering five inches over the 5'11 Evans. So it would be smart for him to use his reach to keep Evans at bay with jabs and leg kicks while their standing. Evans has been susceptible to legs kicks in the past and once mentioned it as a weakness he needs to work on. Distance will also be important for Jones since Evans is a pretty good striker in his own right. Jones will need to work the sprawl if Evans shoots for a takedown and deliver his excellent Muay Thai knees that were so devastating against Rua in their fight. He might also look to submit Evans by a guillotine choke as he employed against Machida if he's able to force Evans back into the cage. Jones has got an all around game and an unorthodox style that has worked well thus far. He'll need to apply all his technique and exploit the weaknesses he's seen in Evans in their training sessions in the past.

Evans' Keys To Victory

Going into the fight, Evans has an advantage that no other fighter has had against Jones. He's fought him before. Albeit in the training gym, but he knows how he moves and what he likes to do. Evans should exploit whatever weaknesses he feels Jones has. There hasn't been a great deal of fights where Jones has had to defend on the ground, since his usually on top of his opponents. Evans should look to cut the distance, nullifying Jones' reach and look to take him to the ground where he should have the advantage with his excellent wrestling ability. Evans needs to watch the spinning elbow and employ some of the same defensive footwork that Machida used at the beginning of his fight with Jones to make Jones a less effective striker. Trying to fight him on the inside may also be a good tactic, eliminating the reach advantage, while setting up an opportunity for a takedown. He'll just need to watch the knees inside.

The Prediction

Ring & Cage Winner: Jon "Bones" Jones in 4. Barring any spectacular knockout by either side in the first two rounds, I see them doing a lot of feeling out in the first round and working a chess match in two and three. While they know each other from training, its not the same as fighting someone who's trying to take your head off. Jones has a height advantage and reach advantage, and Evans has had problems in the past with taller fighters. Jones has taken out three former light heavyweight champions in one year, beating Rua, Jackson, and Machida in the span of 10 months in 2011 by TKO or submission. This guy Jones is no joke, and the problems he poses for Evans are going to very hard to solve. As I said, Evans has the best shot of any fighter who's come before him having trained with Jones. But like the odds-makers, I don't think it he'll prove me wrong come April 21st. Look for the fight results and review on the night of the fight.

Until next write...

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