Mayweather Vs Cotto: Prediction

A Little Background

In just 2 days, on May 5, 2012, Floyd Mayweather Jr. will take on Puetro Rican star, Miguel Cotto at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. Mayweather will be moving up in weight (154lbs), to challenge Cotto for the WBA junior middleweight title in this pay per view event. This fight has been made in place of a bout with Manny Pacquiao; an often called "fight for the ages," between the Phillipino star and Mayweather ranked #1 and #2 on The Ring's pound for pound list respectively.

In "Money" Mayweather's last fight he took on rising star Victor Ortiz for the WBC welterweight championship on September 17, 2011. Mayweather got the win by a legal, but controversial 4th round knockout of Ortiz. Totally legal, because referee Joe Cortez (one of my favorites) called the bout back into action. However, it appeared that Ortiz was still apologizing for the vicious headbutt that he delivered to Mayweather, that Ortiz was penalized for. Seizing the moment, Mayweather landed an awesome left hook-right hook combination that floored Ortiz and he was unable to recover. The events that led to the end of the bout culminated into a verbal confrontation between Mayweather and famed ring side commentator Larry Merchant, who pulls no punches. This isn't the first time the two squared off and neither was at a loss for words. See it all here in this video.

Miguel Cotto is coming off of a 10 round TKO victory over Mexican star Antonio Margarito on December 3, 2011, due to Margarito's right eye swelling shut. Cotto's victory in this rematch was among the sweetest of his career because in the first fight he lost by TKO in the 11th round to Margarito on July 26, 2008. It was said that Margarito's gloves were packed with illegal plaster wrappings and made the difference in the fight. Though Cotto led on most of the judge's scorecards, he was unable to withstand the damage done and eventually caved in.

24/7

Cotto's win in December coupled with Mayweather's and Pacquiao's continuous inability to come to terms for the biggest fight in the last ten years has brought us to Mayweather vs Cotto. Starting on April 14, 2011 us boxing fans, watched the drama as it unfolded, following Mayweather and Cotto on HBO's documentary style series 24/7.

Over the first three episodes you can see Mayweather reunite in his own way with his father Floyd Mayweather Sr., who taught him and his uncle/trainer Roger Mayweather the game of boxing. During training for his fight against Victor Ortiz the father and son had a huge blowup. Aside from the brief moment of on-camera reconciliation, much is the same in the Mayweather camp. The motto "hard work, dedication," reverberates through the gym, expensive cars line the driveway of Floyd's home and gym, along with an abundance of trash talk, one hundred dollar bills, and rap superstar/best friend 50 Cent.

The Cotto camp is of course a polar opposite of the flamboyance of the "Money Team." There is a quiet relaxed sort of reserved feeling that you get from the humble Cotto and those around him. Much time outside of training is spent with family; those of blood and those who share the bond of unconditional love. In the gym there is a more serious almost cerebral tone that is a contrast from the loud bodacious gym in Las Vegas, Nevada that Floyd Mayweather Jr. calls home.

See the last episode this Friday, May 4, 2012, on HBO at 8:00pm.

Cotto Keys To Victory

Miguel Cotto is going to have to borrow a bit from the book of Oscar De La Hoya and fight behind the jab as much as possible. De La Hoya was able to win the first 5 rounds on the judges cards against Mayweather. However, De La Hoya had the advantage of being two and a half inches taller than mayweather with a 1 inch reach advantage. Cotto has a 5 inch reach disadvantage (72-67) to Mayweather. Therefore, along with a jab, Cotto should employ what made him a dangerous fighter and pressure Mayweather and try to put as much body work in as humanly possible. Constant pressure and a stiff jab will give Cotto the biggest opportunity to cash in on the scorecards. He doesn't necessarily need to land clean blows. De La Hoya landed mostly glancing blows against Mayweather. Cotto simply needs to be as active as De La Hoya was for those first five rounds by pressing Mayweather to the ropes and digging to the body, landing whenever and wherever he can. Only difference is, Cotto will need to do it for 12 rounds. Of course, he'll have to defend against the precise accuracy by moving out of range when Mayweather launches his own assault.

Mayweather Keys To Victory

Mayweather needs to be the fighter he's been for the last 42 fights without a defeat. His punches need to be precise and as accurate as they always are. He needs to make Cotto miss and only allow a few glances blows like most of the fighters who've faced him before. Mayweather should slip and counter any jab Cotto decides he wants to utilize in their fight on May 5th. And if there's any opponent he'll want to stay off the ropes against, it's Cotto. If Cotto presses him to the ropes, he's more likely to focus his attack on the body unlike most fighters who look to land punches to Mayweather's face and fail. They don't call him "Pretty Boy" for nothing. But body work over 12 rounds often slows even the most conditioned fighters. Mayweather should definitely employ his superior foot work, hand speed, and more often than not over his opponents, excellent conditioning. These factors are more likely to ensure his success, and that is the oldest strategy in the game. Hit and don't be hit, the epitome of pugilism.

The Prediction

Without being a betting man, my money's on "Money". Mayweather physically has the advantage. He's taller, with a longer reach by five inches, superior quickness, and better boxing skills. Cotto fought and won a unanimous decision victory over Shane Mosley, a fighter who is nearly as fast as Mayweather and hits harder. Mosley's the only fighter since Castillo to give Mayweather true trouble. Mosley gave us all a glimpse into the humanity of Floyd Mayweather when he buckled him with two good right hooks in the second round of their fight on May 1, 2010. However, Mayweather was able to weather the storm and white washed Mosley following that second round winning 11 rounds to 1 on two judges scorecards, and 10 rounds to 2 on the other.

From what I've seen, Cotto doesn't have the kind of one-shot stopping power that nearly ended Mayweather's perfect record. His ability to bounce back is a testament to his intense training and conditioning. A lesser man would have gone down. And while everyone has a punchers chance, I think Mayweather is in a league that Cotto is not. While Cotto is a lot quicker than he looks on television, the pin point precision accuracy of Mayweather's punches do a lot more damage than is seen in the gym with his trainer Roger Mayweather. And perhaps the biggest obstacle Cotto is facing is Mayweather's will. In order to beat him, he'll have to break his will and I don't see that occuring. But for Cotto fans, find solace in the fact that stranger things have happen and he's the younger man by 5 years. This is boxing after all.

Until next write...

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